BYU is college football’s ‘October Surprise’

In politics, an “October Surprise” is a development that could sway an election. In college football, it’s an unexpected team that comes out of nowhere and threatens to sway a season.
That team is BYU.
The No. 17 Cougars played the first five games of the season opposite of how it finished last season — with five consecutive wins. Along the way, as BYU disposed of Southern Illinois, SMU, Wyoming, No. 13 Kansas State and Baylor, the Cougars commandeered the biggest turnaround story in college football.
Granted, it’s still early to claim such an honor, with more than half the season to play, but BYU is the only FBS team that went 0-5 to finish 2023 and start 5-0 in 2024. The Cougars are in the first of two bye weeks as one of only five teams who are 5-0. There are 14 other programs that are 4-0, including No. 1 Alabama.
So, what happened during the 269 days between the double-overtime defeat at No. 21 Oklahoma State last November and the season-opening 41-13 victory against FCS contender Southern Illinois? It’s not as if BYU made any big changes to the offense or defense. There weren’t mass imports from the transfer portal, and the Cougars didn’t turn the scheduling over to Hostess in search of cupcakes.
This extreme makeover has been anything but a smoke-and-mirrors job and has everything to do with hard work and Kalani Sitake’s long-term plan to turn BYU into a Power Four program — and keep it there.
Following the loss to the Cowboys, which excluded the Cougars from a bowl game, Sitake changed two staff positions. TJ Woods was hired to coach the offensive line and be the running game coordinator. Kevin Gilbride was hired to coach the tight ends.
That’s it. Everything else stayed the same and keeping things the same is what changed everything. Sitake’s trust in his second-year coordinator, Jay Hill, and Hill’s consistency with his time-tested scheme, has turned BYU into a defensive school.
During the five-game skid that ended last season, BYU was minus-eight in the turnover ratio and allowed 188 points. Through five games in 2024, the Cougars are plus-four in turnovers and have given up 79 points.
Two of BYU’s P4 opponents provide case studies to the “Hill effect.” SMU is 4-1. The Mustangs have combined for 196 points in their victories, including 66 against TCU and 42 last Saturday against Florida State. BYU held SMU to five field goals on their home field.
No. 20 Kansas State (4-1) remains a contender in the Big 12. During their four victories, the Wildcats amassed 148 points. Among their wins, they pounded then-No. 20 Arizona 31-7 and then-No. 20 Oklahoma State 42-20 last Saturday. But against Hill’s defense, the Wildcats turned the ball over three times and managed just a trio of field goals.
Hill suffered a heart attack three days before the season opener. He moved from the sideline to the press box, where he calls the plays. Refocused by the health scare, both Hill and his defense haven’t missed a beat since.
On offense, Sitake stayed true to coordinator Aaron Roderick and Roderick remained loyal to quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars welcomed grad-transfer Gerry Bohanon to the roster, but after a spirited battle, Roderick chose to keep Retzlaff as the starter.
The former No. 1-ranked junior college quarterback lost all four of his starts last year but has responded with wins in all five starts this year. Critical to his success has been a retooled and reinvigorated offensive line, anchored by veteran center Connor Pay.
When the decision came on whether to sign a running back out of the transfer portal, Roderick and running back coach Harvey Unga decided their talent and depth were good enough; however, due to a rash of injuries, the Cougars have used six different runners through the first five games without anyone taking command of the position.
Season starter LJ Martin, who has missed the last three games with a high ankle sprain, is expected to be back against Arizona on Oct. 12 (2 p.m., Fox) at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
An exceptionally deep receivers’ room has lived up to its billing with Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter leading the way. The tight end position remains a work in progress after Keanu Hill transitioned over from the receivers.
In all, the offense has struggled with consistency, but as the Cougars’ 5-0 record screams, it has been good enough, so far. After turning the ball over three times at SMU, the Cougars have just three turnovers in the last three games combined.
The third phase of the game, special teams, has been a bright spot. Place kicker Will Ferrin is 8 of 11 in kicking field goals, including a personal best 54-yarder just before halftime at Baylor. Kickoff returner Keelan Marion has a 100-yard return for a touchdown. Punt returner Parker Kingston has a 90-yard return for a touchdown.
All combined, the melting pot of offense, defense and special teams is cooking up a special season and at worst, a special start. BYU knows it’s recent history. The Cougars were 5-2 last year when quarterback Kedon Slovis went down with an injury and BYU didn’t win again.
With the bye week, the Cougars have some much-needed extra time to rest and get healthy. Of the three battles that await them in October, two of them (Arizona and Oklahoma State) are at home and UCF is on the road. BYU will get a second bye on Nov. 2, giving them two weeks to prepare for Utah on Nov. 9.
Beating the odds has become routine for BYU. As a 14-point favorite against Southern Illinois, the Cougars won by 28. SMU was favored by 11 and the Cougars won by 3. BYU was a 9.5-point favorite at Wyoming and won by 20. Kansas State was favored by 7 and the Cougars beat them by 29. Last week at Baylor, BYU was a 3-point underdog and won by 6.
Before the season began, the Cougars were picked to finish 13th in the Big 12. After September, they are tied atop the Big 12 standings at 2-0 along with Colorado and Texas Tech. ESPN’s computer rankings, that projected just 4.7 wins, have been adjusted to 9.3. The postseason possibilities have shifted from bowl eligibility to reaching the Big 12 championship game and possibly the College Football Playoff.
Isn’t it amazing what a hot start can do? Sitake knows better than anyone, this is a BYU team that is far from perfect, even as they boast a perfect record. Truth is, the Cougars can win every remaining game on the schedule while at the same time, each opponent can beat BYU.
As sports often reminds us, everything can change in a flash — or a punt or fumble return — just not this week. College football’s “October Surprise” that has stunned the Big 12 and threatens to change the race has the week off, and for Sitake and the Cougars, it couldn’t come at a better time.
Dave McCann is a sportswriter and columnist for the Deseret News and is a play-by-play announcer and show host for BYUtv/ESPN+. He co-hosts “Y’s Guys” at ysguys.com and is the author of the children’s book “C is for Cougar,” available at deseretbook.com.